Bush and the 3rd world war: the Iran case

The Kassandra Project

 

Already in September we read an article about Bush and the possible war to Iran.

Pentagon planners have developed a list of up to 2,000 bombing targets in Iran, amid growing fears among serving officers that diplomatic efforts to slow Iran’s nuclear weapons programme are doomed to fail.

Pentagon and CIA officers say they believe that the White House has begun a carefully calibrated programme of escalation that could lead to a military showdown with Iran.

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Games are made, but… CIA on November, with a dossier called “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities“, destroied Bush’s dreams to sterminate other poor people, women and children, in order to obtain the power on the Middle-East lands and a strategic position against Russia (…and Europe?).

In fact CIA stated that:

This National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) assesses the status of Iran’s nuclear program, and the program’s outlook over the next 10 years. This time frame is more appropriate for estimating capabilities than intentions and foreign reactions, which are more difficult to estimate over a decade. In presenting the Intelligence Community’s assessment of Iranian nuclear intentions and capabilities, the NIE thoroughly reviews all available information on these questions, examines the range of reasonable scenarios consistent with this information, and describes the key factors we judge would drive or impede nuclear progress in Iran. This NIE is an extensive reexamination of the issues in the May 2005 assessment.
This Estimate focuses on the following key questions:
• What are Iran’s intentions toward developing nuclear weapons?
• What domestic factors affect Iran’s decisionmaking on whether to develop nuclear weapons?
• What external factors affect Iran’s decisionmaking on whether to develop nuclear weapons?
• What is the range of potential Iranian actions concerning the development of nuclear weapons, and the decisive factors that would lead Iran to choose one course of action over another?
• What is Iran’s current and projected capability to develop nuclear weapons? What are our key assumptions, and Iran’s key chokepoints/vulnerabilities?

This NIE does not assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons. Rather, it examines the intelligence to assess Iran’s capability and intent (or lack thereof) to acquire nuclear weapons, taking full account of Iran’s dual-use uranium fuel cycle and those nuclear activities that are at least partly civil in nature. 

trough the National Intelligence Council:

Since its formation in 1973, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on critical national security issues, and as a focal point for Intelligence Community collaboration. The NIC’s key goal is to provide policymakers with the best, unvarnished, and unbiased information—regardless of whether analytic judgments conform to US policy. Its primary functions are to:
• Support the DNI in his role as Principal Intelligence Advisor to the President and other senior policymakers.
• Lead the Intelligence Community’s effort to produce National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) and other NIC products that address key national security concerns.
• Provide a focal point for policymakers, warfighters, and Congressional leaders to task the Intelligence Community for answers to important questions.
• Reach out to nongovernment experts in academia and the private sector—and use alternative analyses and new analytic tools—to broaden and deepen the Intelligence Community’s perspective.

What did they write? “This NIE does not assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons“: poor Bush, he has no reason to declare another unuseful war for his own pleasure.

But… Bush dislikes to lose, so he invented another reason: “President George W Bush has insisted that Iran remained a “dangerous” threat as he struggled to justify continued isolation of the country despite the “great discovery” that it had suspended its nuclear weapons programme in 2003. “.

In addition: “Iran was dangerous. Iran is dangerous. And Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon,” he said, emphasising that US military action was still possible. “The best diplomacy, effective diplomacy is one in which all options are on the table.

What can we say? Bush has strategical interests in Iran, for oil, for defense: but he doesn’t understand that Russia won’t permit him to invade Iran, because it could be the door towards a new military strategy. This could mean 3rd world war.

American mothers and fathers, don’t send your children towards a war which can change the world forever. Say no to all wars and remember Iraq situation.

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  1. Uhm, I hate to rain on your parade…… but Bush isn’t in any kind of power past January of ’09… So why would he have some kind of megalomaniac-type push for power in the Middle East when (A) he wouldn’t be around to reap the reward of his political suicide and (B) he is scrambling farther and farther left to try and leave what the media would deem a “good legacy” (whatever the crap that actually means) in his last year?

    Considering that the EU has stated that they don’t buy the NIE report and are still going to go ahead with sanctions and all that lot, shouldn’t you be more concerned about the EU going the “warmonger” route? Essentially, welcome to nuclear disarmament… If you are going to get someone to forsake the very thought of developing WMD, you have to do so through agressive diplomacy, AND a willingness to back up your threats/promises. Iran kind of tipped their hand too far when they refused to take an offer from the EU for a cold reactor because they insisted on their “freedom of ambition”… even though they signed on to the Nuclear NPT. Talking out of both sides of their mouth, it would seem.




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