US interests in the Iraq war and the Euro-Dollar exchange

The Kassandra Project


Economists, politics and other readers who are reading this article may say “of course the oil price and the euro dollar exchange are in relationship”. But what we want to write now is: “Do you really know how much is this relationship and its correlation with the Iraq war?

Let’s start.

We get the euro-dollar exchange rate chart in the last 5 years, from 2003 to 2007, from the European Central Bank statistics section.

We get the Light Crude Oil (CL, NYMEX) Historical Commodity Futures Charts in the last 5 years from 2005 to 2007 charts and from 2003 to 2004 charts.

We didn’t found a chart with the last 5 years for oil prices, so we had to rescale the five charts we found and then we compared it with the euro-dollar exchange rate chart. What did we find?

euro dollar exchange vs oil price

Click on the above image to enlarge it

What can you see? It seems there are no relationships between the two charts from 2003 to the end of 2006. But from Feb 2007 they have almost the same trend! Quite strange!

In November 2000, Iraq began selling its oil in euros. Iraq’s oil for food account at the UN was also in euros and Iraq later converted its $10 billion reserve fund at the UN to euros. Several other oil producing countries have also agreed to sell oil in euros-Iran, Libya, Venezuela, Russia, Indonesia, and Malaysia (soon to join this group). In July 2003, China announced that it would switch part of its dollar reserves into the world’s emerging “reserve currency” (the euro). (from The Invasion of Iraq: Dollar vs Euro)

Until the start of the Iraq war the euro dollar exchange was stable and about 1, which means that USA and EU had almost the same purchasing power. But suddenly euro became more powerful… What USA could do?

Where Europe buy oil? By Middle East maybe? By Iraq primarily? Goal.

Despite war, euro was keeping stable, dollar was going down day by day. USA had to consider that from 2020 their oil reserves will finish. Who has the remaining oil? More than 60% of world’s remaining oil is controlled by Middle East:

  • Saudi Arabia: 262 billion barrels
  • Iran: 132 billion barrels
  • Iraq: 115 billion barrels
  • Kuwait: 99 billion barrels
  • United Arab Emirates: 97 billion barrels

Ok.. The Bin Laden family is in affairs with USA for billions of dollars and they are in relationship with the Bush family through the Carlyle Group.

Kuwait was in debt with USA for its liberation from Saddam Hussein during the first Iraq war: Kuwait is a friend.

United Arab Emirates are friends.

Strange, there are Iran and Iraq: they didn’t see USA as well. For first we saw the war declaration to Iraq without any documented reason (no mass destruction weapons has been never found) and in this days what do we see? USA is looking for some reasons to declare a war to Iran. Is it a case?

But what happened in Jan/Feb 2007, in order to increase the oil price per barrel?

January 10, 2007, 9:01 P.M. EST – G.W.Bush:

To establish its authority, the Iraqi government plans to take responsibility for security in all of Iraq’s provinces by November. To give every Iraqi citizen a stake in the country’s economy, Iraq will pass legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis. To show that it is committed to delivering a better life, the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion of its own money on reconstruction and infrastructure projects that will create new jobs. To empower local leaders, Iraqis plan to hold provincial elections later this year. And to allow more Iraqis to re-enter their nation’s political life, the government will reform de-Baathification laws, and establish a fair process for considering amendments to Iraq’s constitution.

America will change our approach to help the Iraqi government as it works to meet these benchmarks. In keeping with the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, we will increase the embedding of American advisers in Iraqi Army units, and partner a coalition brigade with every Iraqi Army division. We will help the Iraqis build a larger and better-equipped army, and we will accelerate the training of Iraqi forces, which remains the essential U.S. security mission in Iraq. We will give our commanders and civilians greater flexibility to spend funds for economic assistance. We will double the number of provincial reconstruction teams. These teams bring together military and civilian experts to help local Iraqi communities pursue reconciliation, strengthen the moderates, and speed the transition to Iraqi self-reliance. And Secretary Rice will soon appoint a reconstruction coordinator in Baghdad to ensure better results for economic assistance being spent in Iraq.

Oh, USA is very polite to want to build infrastructure projects that will create new jobs in Iraq, with iraqi $10 billion.

Who will coordinate this reconstruction? The Secretary Rice. Who is her?

Rice headed Chevron’s committee on public policy until she resigned on January 15, 2001, to become National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush. Chevron honored Rice by naming an oil tanker Condoleezza Rice after her, but controversy led to its being renamed Altair Voyager.[25]

She also served on the board of directors for the Carnegie Corporation, the Charles Schwab Corporation, the Chevron Corporation, Hewlett Packard, the Rand Corporation, the Transamerica Corporation, and other organizations.

A “Chevron’s woman” who coordinate USA project about iraqi oil… What is Chevron?

Chevron Corporation is the world’s fifth largest global energy companies. Headquartered in San Ramon, California, USA and active in more than 180 countries, it is engaged in every aspect of the oil and gas industry, including exploration and production; refining, marketing and transport; chemicals manufacturing and sales; and power generation. Chevron is one of the world’s six “supermajor” oil companies.

January 23, 2007, 9:13 P.M. EST – G.W.Bush:

“Extending hope and opportunity depends on a stable supply of energy that keeps America’s economy running and America’s environment clean. For too long our nation has been dependent on foreign oil. And this dependence leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes, and to terrorists — who could cause huge disruptions of oil shipments, and raise the price of oil, and do great harm to our economy.

It’s in our vital interest to diversify America’s energy supply — the way forward is through technology. We must continue changing the way America generates electric power, by even greater use of clean coal technology, solar and wind energy, and clean, safe nuclear power. (Applause.) We need to press on with battery research for plug-in and hybrid vehicles, and expand the use of clean diesel vehicles and biodiesel fuel. (Applause.) We must continue investing in new methods of producing ethanol — (applause) — using everything from wood chips to grasses, to agricultural wastes.

We made a lot of progress, thanks to good policies here in Washington and the strong response of the market. And now even more dramatic advances are within reach. Tonight, I ask Congress to join me in pursuing a great goal. Let us build on the work we’ve done and reduce gasoline usage in the United States by 20 percent in the next 10 years. (Applause.) When we do that we will have cut our total imports by the equivalent of three-quarters of all the oil we now import from the Middle East.

The people of Iraq want to live in peace, and now it’s time for their government to act. Iraq’s leaders know that our commitment is not open-ended. They have promised to deploy more of their own troops to secure Baghdad — and they must do so. They pledged that they will confront violent radicals of any faction or political party — and they need to follow through, and lift needless restrictions on Iraqi and coalition forces, so these troops can achieve their mission of bringing security to all of the people of Baghdad. Iraq’s leaders have committed themselves to a series of benchmarks — to achieve reconciliation, to share oil revenues among all of Iraq’s citizens, to put the wealth of Iraq into the rebuilding of Iraq, to allow more Iraqis to re-enter their nation’s civic life, to hold local elections, and to take responsibility for security in every Iraqi province. But for all of this to happen, Baghdad must be secure. And our plan will help the Iraqi government take back its capital and make good on its commitments.

It sounds great. In “Future of Iraq: The spoils of wa – How the West will make a killing on Iraqi oil riches“, By Danny Fortson, Andrew Murray-Watson and Tim Webb, Published on 07 January 2007 you can read:

Iraq’s massive oil reserves, the third-largest in the world, are about to be thrown open for large-scale exploitation by Western oil companies under a controversial law which is expected to come before the Iraqi parliament within days.

The US government has been involved in drawing up the law, a draft of which has been seen by The Independent on Sunday. It would give big oil companies such as BP, Shell and Exxon 30-year contracts to extract Iraqi crude and allow the first large-scale operation of foreign oil interests in the country since the industry was nationalised in 1972.

The huge potential prizes for Western firms will give ammunition to critics who say the Iraq war was fought for oil. They point to statements such as one from Vice-President Dick Cheney, who said in 1999, while he was still chief executive of the oil services company Halliburton, that the world would need an additional 50 million barrels of oil a day by 2010. “So where is the oil going to come from?… The Middle East, with two-thirds of the world’s oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies,” he said.

Oil industry executives and analysts say the law, which would permit Western companies to pocket up to three-quarters of profits in the early years, is the only way to get Iraq’s oil industry back on its feet after years of sanctions, war and loss of expertise. But it will operate through “production-sharing agreements” (or PSAs) which are highly unusual in the Middle East, where the oil industry in Saudi Arabia and Iran, the world’s two largest producers, is state controlled.

Opponents say Iraq, where oil accounts for 95 per cent of the economy, is being forced to surrender an unacceptable degree of sovereignty.

Ok, now we answered to our question “But what happened in Jan/Feb 2007, in order to increase the oil price per barrel?“.

You can add No human rights for Iraqi citizens, no democracy, no freedom.

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  1. Sadly, a lot of what happened to the barrel price was that speculators forced the price up and manipulated the market. Mid-East politics was as much an excuse as a reason.

    Always follow the money.

  2. Of course. Data and charts seems to credit the theory, but it’s only a way to redirect the public towards these topics: we could say of “geo-economy” , as well as “geo-politics”.

  3. geo-economics and geo-politics are two facets of the same thing 😉

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